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Outright betting, also known as futures betting, consists of a variety of markets available to bettors. What is outright betting? When does long-term betting offer value? How can you make outright betting predictions? Read on to find out.
What is an outright bet?
An outright bet is a bet placed on the outcome of an entire league or competition as opposed to a single bet on an individual game or event.
Bettors can place an outright bet before the competition commences but markets are often open whilst the competition is taking place.
When does long-term betting offer value?
Long-term outright bets are useful for locking in value on teams whose odds may fluctuate over the competition. As an example a bettor may consider the strength of the Real Madrid to be underrated by betting markets. If this was the case the market would correct fairly quickly on a match-to-match basis.
By betting on Real to win that season's Champions League outright rather than betting on each individual match the bettor locks in value which may otherwise quickly diminish.
- Read: Making Half Time/Full Time predictions
This is not to say that outrights always offer value however. It is not uncommon to see better odds on betting individual events over the outright. One extreme example is an infamous bet placed on Tiger Woods to complete a clean sweep of the golf majors (after winning the 2019 Masters) at 101.0. This price was taken despite the fact that some sportsbooks priced Woods at 11.00 to win the PGA Championship alone.
Assuming this is indicative of the odds Woods will be priced at the further two major events the odds the bettor could achieve by just rolling over winnings into the outright for each event would be in the 1300.00 range, a payout 13 times larger than taking the future on the clean sweep. That's without considering the chance that Woods may miss an event through injury.
This effect is similar but more difficult to calculate when betting on more conventional outright markets. Could the bettor secure better odds by utilising his bankroll betting on individual events?
Outright Market Definition
Another consideration is opportunity cost. A profitable bettor will likely be able to use his bankroll more effectively over the course of a Premier League season, for example, than simply betting on the outright winner at the start of the season.
Hedging an outright bet
Outright Market Stocks
It is usually possible to hedge an outright bet but on some occasions it can be difficult to do so. In competitions involving only two competitors or markets where a 'not to win' selection is offered it is as simple as hedging a normal bet, albeit sometimes over a longer time period. Read how to hedge a bet for more information.
Where hedging becomes more difficult is if multiple selections can win the event, or the odds on the selection are so high that large sums are required to hedge the bet. Bettors should consider their exit options prior to placing the bet in this case.
In most cases hedging requires a cost, whether that's the high margin on a Cashout, commission or a bookmaker's margin for the second time. It is likely better to allow the bet to run its course in the long run.
Making outright betting predictions
When making a prediction on an outright market a bettor should be looking for a selection that will not just offer value but also offer value above and beyond what that bettor can do with the money in the meantime.
Outright Market
Outright Market Movers
Betting on outrights may actually provide one of the more realistic ways to find value bets. This is because of the opportunity cost associated with placing a long term outright bet. Bettors capable of finding positive expected value bets consistently would be unwise to tie up their bankroll over an extended period of time, possibly leaving the market relatively less efficient due to a delay in signalling.
This can cause a lag in the odds movement that otherwise wouldn't exist. For example in the summer of 2017 PSG could be bet on as high as 21.00 in the Champions League outright market.
These odds remained available despite the odds on PSG signing two superstar players (Neymar and Kylian Mbappe) shortening significantly. Logically the developments involving their transfers should have followed through to the PSG's outright odds, since the acquisition of such players would improve their Champions League chances. However it took a while for the market to react accordingly, and by the end of the Summer PSG were available at a highest price of 11.00.
Unlike many bookmaker's Pinnacle welcome winning bettors. Read more expert betting advice to make the most of our outright odds.
Last week, the whistle had just blown at Anfield after a turgid goalless draw between Liverpool and Manchester United. I switched from the TV coverage to the radio in the kitchen just in time to hear this exchange.
Presenter: 'A point apiece for these two at Anfield – do you now make Manchester City your favourites, Dion?'
Dion Dublin: 'No, I wouldn't go that far just yet.'
I spend an unhealthy amount of time trying to correct broadcasters who incorrectly use the word favourites when what they actually mean is ‘your fancy' or ‘your tip' across all forms of media.
Dublin has several strings to his bow but I don't recall him opening up a bookmakers, and it's probably a good job, too. City were overwhelming favourites for the title when he answered the question and they went even shorter within a couple of hours, brushing aside Crystal Palace 4-0 at the Etihad.
As we enter this midweek round of fixtures, in which hopefully all 20 teams will participate for the first time in a while, Pep Guardiola's men sit on top of the title market at a seasonal low price of 4/9. The market is saying that it's a better than 60 per cent chance that the trophy ends up back in their hands.
While that market shift is understandable when looking at City's run of form – 26 points from a possible 30 in their last 10 games – it also has a lot to do with the collapse of Liverpool, their most likely challengers at the beginning of the season.
Nothing can have been as sobering for Chelsea's hierarchy as the way in which his extensive resources are being undercut by Leicester, Everton and Aston Villa.
Jurgen Klopp's side did end their goal drought in the FA Cup yesterday but still exited via a 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford. Their scoring record in the Premier League is terrible – one from their last five games. That has seen them take just three points from a possible 15.
Outright Market Movers
Betting on outrights may actually provide one of the more realistic ways to find value bets. This is because of the opportunity cost associated with placing a long term outright bet. Bettors capable of finding positive expected value bets consistently would be unwise to tie up their bankroll over an extended period of time, possibly leaving the market relatively less efficient due to a delay in signalling.
This can cause a lag in the odds movement that otherwise wouldn't exist. For example in the summer of 2017 PSG could be bet on as high as 21.00 in the Champions League outright market.
These odds remained available despite the odds on PSG signing two superstar players (Neymar and Kylian Mbappe) shortening significantly. Logically the developments involving their transfers should have followed through to the PSG's outright odds, since the acquisition of such players would improve their Champions League chances. However it took a while for the market to react accordingly, and by the end of the Summer PSG were available at a highest price of 11.00.
Unlike many bookmaker's Pinnacle welcome winning bettors. Read more expert betting advice to make the most of our outright odds.
Last week, the whistle had just blown at Anfield after a turgid goalless draw between Liverpool and Manchester United. I switched from the TV coverage to the radio in the kitchen just in time to hear this exchange.
Presenter: 'A point apiece for these two at Anfield – do you now make Manchester City your favourites, Dion?'
Dion Dublin: 'No, I wouldn't go that far just yet.'
I spend an unhealthy amount of time trying to correct broadcasters who incorrectly use the word favourites when what they actually mean is ‘your fancy' or ‘your tip' across all forms of media.
Dublin has several strings to his bow but I don't recall him opening up a bookmakers, and it's probably a good job, too. City were overwhelming favourites for the title when he answered the question and they went even shorter within a couple of hours, brushing aside Crystal Palace 4-0 at the Etihad.
As we enter this midweek round of fixtures, in which hopefully all 20 teams will participate for the first time in a while, Pep Guardiola's men sit on top of the title market at a seasonal low price of 4/9. The market is saying that it's a better than 60 per cent chance that the trophy ends up back in their hands.
While that market shift is understandable when looking at City's run of form – 26 points from a possible 30 in their last 10 games – it also has a lot to do with the collapse of Liverpool, their most likely challengers at the beginning of the season.
Nothing can have been as sobering for Chelsea's hierarchy as the way in which his extensive resources are being undercut by Leicester, Everton and Aston Villa.
Jurgen Klopp's side did end their goal drought in the FA Cup yesterday but still exited via a 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford. Their scoring record in the Premier League is terrible – one from their last five games. That has seen them take just three points from a possible 15.
During that run they have also failed to win at home to Burnley and West Bromwich Albion at huge odds-on prices, wrecking punters' accumulators while damaging their own hopes of retaining the trophy. Their slide to 8/1 on a market that would pay one quarter of the odds for finishing second really shows how much they are now being dismissed.
It's even more astonishing when you realise they hit a low of 19/20 just five weeks ago. We now have a Manchester 1-2 in the betting as United have comfortably slid in behind their neighbours at odds of 11/2.
If you think Liverpool's slide in the market is remarkable then spare a thought for Chelsea backers. When the Blues were 6/1 joint-third-favourites a month or so ago it would have taken a huge leap of imagination – even in a season as wild as this one – to picture them eighth in the pricing at a dismissive 200/1 by the last week of January.
Frank Lampard took knocks from all sides, but nothing can have been as sobering for Chelsea's hierarchy as a look at a market in which his extensive resources are being undercut (in betting terms) by the likes of Leicester, Everton and Aston Villa. The Blues' underperformance has now resulted in Lampard losing his job.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to his replacement, Thomas Tuchel.
Outright Market Meaning
One look at the market for the ‘Top 4 Finish' shows that the German has quite a fight on his hands there. Chelsea were comfortably odds-on at the start of the season and carried that status right through to Christmas, which is when the compilers started asking questions of them.
Chelsea lost to Arsenal on Boxing Day, sparking a Gunners revival. Were the Blues as good as their rating or had they just performed in the slightly easier games?
An Over/Under bet can also be a proposition bet where there's a wager made on a specific occurrence. A boxing match is a good example since scoring isn't quite the same as the major sports: Floyd Mayweather vs. The fight will last 9.5 rounds. Over (-110) Under (-110) Floyd Mayweather defeated Conor McGregor by technical knockout in the 10th round and over bettors won. Over-under if your don't want to touch the person you are stuck sleeping with and there is two blankets and one bed. One person goes under one blanket and the other goes on top of the blanket next to the other person with a blanket over themselves. Super safe way to ensure no funny business in the sack. The Over/Under is a set of odds in which you bet on whether the combined score will add up to more or less than the projected total number set by oddsmakers. If you believe there will be more. Over Under Betting is the second most popular type of NFL betting, just behind spread betting. Over Under Betting is also known as 'Game Total Betting' and you will often see it be referred to as either term. Beginner NFL bettors may be confused by Over Under Betting, but it is very easy to learn and understand once explained.
Either side of New Year's Day the market corrected itself from 4/6 to 6/4 – a shift of 20 per cent. That slide continued, allowing them to be backed at a huge 5/2 to make the top four ahead of their match at home to Wolves on Wednesday.
Best nfl games online legally games. Elsewhere in the outright markets for the top flight there's a little more interest in the relegation market.
Outright Open Market Operations
Sheffield United aside, already 1/33, West Brom winning at Wolves in the Midlands derby prompted a step in the right direction for the Baggies.
Fulham (5/6) and Burnley (9/2) continue to improve, so the outlook for Steve Bruce and Newcastle looks worrying. They show at 7/4 – a collapse from around 11/2 just a month or so ago.